隨著美中貿(mào)易摩擦升級，多家外媒和智庫開始把目光轉(zhuǎn)向了這場博弈的一個關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域，稀土（rare earth）。
中國前不久宣布對7類中重稀土相關(guān)物項實(shí)施出口管制，外媒分析認(rèn)為，這一舉措可能給美國帶來“重大打擊”，并暴露出美國對中國稀土的依賴程度有多高。
China has now imposed export controls on a range of critical rare earth minerals and magnets, dealing a major blow to the US. The move has laid bare how reliant America is on these minerals.
美國有線電視新聞網(wǎng)（CNN）稱這是中國手中握有的一張有力王牌（a powerful card to play），是中國對美國擁有絕對優(yōu)勢的一個領(lǐng)域。
Unlike tariffs, it’s a front where Trump has little room to retaliate in kind. 和關(guān)稅不同，在稀土領(lǐng)域，特朗普幾無反擊空間。
稀土有多重要？美國戰(zhàn)略與國際問題研究中心（CSIS）的一份報告稱，中國對重稀土的出口管控可能直接導(dǎo)致美國國防供應(yīng)鏈中斷，進(jìn)而撼動美國國防工業(yè)的根基。
As China imposes export controls on rare earth elements, the US would be unable to fill a potential shortfall, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) — and this could threaten Washington's military capabilities.
稀土何以成為中國的“王牌”？
稀土是17種化學(xué)元素的統(tǒng)稱，廣泛應(yīng)用于智能手機(jī)、電動車、醫(yī)療設(shè)備及軍事裝備等高科技領(lǐng)域。盡管稀土在自然界儲量豐富，但其提取難度高，因而稀有。
"Rare earths" are a group of 17 chemically similar elements that are crucial to the manufacture of many high-tech products. Most are abundant in nature, but they are known as "rare" because it is very unusual to find them in a pure form, and they are very hazardous to extract.
中國在稀土領(lǐng)域的優(yōu)勢體現(xiàn)在資源和技術(shù)上。
國際能源機(jī)構(gòu)的數(shù)據(jù)稱，在2023年，中國的稀土資源產(chǎn)量占到了全世界的61%。更重要的是，中國掌握稀土分離核心技術(shù)，全球92%的精煉稀土都產(chǎn)自中國。
In 2023, China produced 61% of the world's raw magnet rare earth elements, which are essential in high-tech industries such as electronics, electric vehicles and defense. Its dominance is even more pronounced in refining these materials, making up 92% of the global refined supply.
CNN稱，數(shù)十年來，美國和其他國家都依賴中國供應(yīng)這些加工后的稀土資源。
美國的依賴：從智能手機(jī)到F-35戰(zhàn)機(jī)
今年，美國地質(zhì)調(diào)查局的一份報告指出，2020至2023年間，美國70%的稀土化合物及金屬進(jìn)口依賴中國。
Between 2020 and 2023, the US relied on China for 70% of its imports of all rare earth compounds and metals, according to a US Geological Survey report this year.
更為關(guān)鍵的是，CSIS指出，美國目前無法分離重稀土，而重稀土正是國防工業(yè)的“命脈”。
從雷達(dá)到永磁材料，從F-35戰(zhàn)機(jī)、“戰(zhàn)斧”導(dǎo)彈到“捕食者”無人機(jī)，美國均依賴于重稀土。
According to the CSIS, this leaves the US particularly vulnerable as there is no capacity outside China to process heavy rare earths. Heavy rare earths are used in many military fields such as missiles, radar, and permanent magnets. A CSIS report notes that defence technologies including F-35 jets, Tomahawk missiles and Predator unmanned aerial vehicles all depend on these minerals.
CSIS報告直言，如果中國完全停止中重稀土元素的出口，那么美國“短期內(nèi)是無力填平缺口的”。其國防工業(yè)將長期受制于人。
According to CSIS' report, if China's trade controls result in a complete shutdown of the medium and heavy rare earth element exports, the US will be incapable of filling the gap.
美國空軍2022年承認(rèn)，中國武器裝備更新速度是美國的5至6倍，稀土限制可能進(jìn)一步拉大這一差距。
The CSIS report cites an estimate that China is acquiring advanced weapons systems and equipment five to six times faster than the US, originating from a US Air Force official in 2022. "Further bans on critical minerals inputs will only widen the gap, enabling China to strengthen its military capabilities more quickly than the United States," the report concludes.
除了對美國軍工國防的沖擊，中國的出口管制還將推升稀土的價格，導(dǎo)致從智能手機(jī)到電動車的生產(chǎn)成本大幅增加。
"Manufacturers, particularly in defence and high-tech, face potential shortages and production delays due to halted shipments and limited inventories," said Gavin Harper, a critical materials research fellow at the University of Birmingham. "Prices for critical rare earth materials are expected to surge, increasing the immediate costs of components used in a wide range of products, from smartphones to military hardware," he says, adding that this could result in potential production slowdowns for affected US companies.
美國的困境：供應(yīng)鏈重建仍需數(shù)年
據(jù)外媒報道，目前美國擁有一座稀土礦，但其不具備分離重稀土的能力，稀土礦石需運(yùn)往中國加工。
The US has one operational rare earths mine, but it does not have the capacity to separate heavy rare earths and has to send its ore to China for processing.
盡管特朗普政府已啟動國內(nèi)稀土供應(yīng)鏈重建計劃，但進(jìn)展緩慢。
建立這樣的產(chǎn)能不僅需要很長時間和持續(xù)大量的投資，而且即便美國能建好這樣的產(chǎn)線，也根本不足夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)稀土的自給自足。
Since the first Trump administration, the US has been trying to play catch-up and build up its own domestic rare earths supply chain. But those efforts will take years to meet the enormous demand from key US industries.
美國國防部自2020年起投入4.39億美元建設(shè)稀土加工設(shè)施，但CSIS指出，這些設(shè)施最早要到2027年才能實(shí)現(xiàn)量產(chǎn)，且產(chǎn)能仍遠(yuǎn)低于中國。
外媒分析，這也是為什么特朗普急于同烏克蘭簽訂礦產(chǎn)協(xié)定，同時覬覦著擁有世界第八大稀土儲量的格陵蘭。
This is largely believed to be part of why US President Donald Trump is so keen to sign a minerals deal with Ukraine - it wants to reduce dependency on China. Another place Trump has had his eye on is Greenland — which is endowed with the eighth largest reserves of rare earth elements.
但CSIS的報告也指出，這兩個地方資源的商業(yè)價值和開采難度，本身也存在大量疑問。
However, questions remain about the value and accessibility of such deposits.
對于中國的這一手牌，密歇根大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與公共政策教授賈斯汀·沃爾弗斯評論稱，是“精準(zhǔn)打擊，直擊美國工業(yè)的痛處”。
他認(rèn)為：“中國此舉展現(xiàn)了其運(yùn)用戰(zhàn)略手段施展驚人經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的能力?！?/p>
"It's China showing that it can exert incredible economic might by being strategic … and surgical and really hitting American industry right where it hurts," said Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan.
編輯：左卓
來源：CNN CNBC BBC 環(huán)球時報
China Daily精讀計劃
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