“‘貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)是好事且容易取勝’在普遍意義上顯然是謬誤……”
近日，《金融時報》發(fā)布了一篇題為“美國為何會在貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)中輸給中國（Why the US will lose against China）”的報道，對美國在貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)中難以取勝的原因進(jìn)行了分析。文章指出，特朗普對全球提出的所謂“對等關(guān)稅”的“解放日”計(jì)劃，堪稱史上最離奇的貿(mào)易政策提案。
美國已淪為不可靠伙伴
在文章中，作者提到許多國家與中國的貿(mào)易體量已超越對美貿(mào)易。
盡管美國仍是許多國家更重要的出口市場，但中國同樣是關(guān)鍵市場。更重要的是，中國作為關(guān)鍵進(jìn)口商品供應(yīng)源的地位無可替代——畢竟進(jìn)口才是國際貿(mào)易的根本目的。
Many significant powers already do more of their trade with China than with the US: these include Australia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea. Yes, the US is a more important export market than China for many significant countries, partly because of the trade deficits Trump complains about. But China is also a significant market for many. Moreover, China is a source of essential imports, many of which cannot be easily replaced. Imports are, after all, the purpose of trade.
更重要的是，美國已淪為不可靠伙伴。
“交易至上”的美國，永遠(yuǎn)在尋求更優(yōu)條件，任何理性國家都不會將未來押注于此。
貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)對中方主要是需求沖擊，而對美國則是供給沖擊。重建需求遠(yuǎn)比重構(gòu)供應(yīng)鏈容易。
Above all, the US has become unreliable. A "transactional" US is one always seeking a better deal. No sane country should bet its future on such a partner. Moreover, for China, the trade war is mainly a demand shock, while for the US it is mainly a supply shock. It is easier to replace lost demand than missing supply.
圖源：VCG
美國無法實(shí)現(xiàn)其預(yù)期
在作者看來，美國既無法實(shí)現(xiàn)其預(yù)期，也不可能取得貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的勝利。
文章梳理了特朗普治下的美國：試圖將法治變成復(fù)仇的工具；瓦解政府機(jī)構(gòu)；蔑視作為憲政根基的法律；攻擊科學(xué)研究和美國頂尖大學(xué)的獨(dú)立性；發(fā)動對可靠統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的戰(zhàn)爭；敵視移民（包括合法移民），盡管他們世代都是美國成功的基石；全盤否定醫(yī)學(xué)與氣候科學(xué)；背棄最基本的貿(mào)易經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)原理；公開蔑視美國親手建立的全球秩序所依賴的聯(lián)盟與合作機(jī)構(gòu)體系……
The US will not get the deals it apparently seeks and the victory over China it hopes for. … Now, consider what is happening under the Trump regime: attempts to transform the rule of law into an instrument of vengeance; the dismantling of the US government; contempt for the laws that are the foundation of legitimate government; attacks on scientific research and the independence of the great US universities; wars on reliable statistics; hostility towards immigrants (and not just illegal ones), even though they have been the foundations of US success in every generation; an outright repudiation of medical science and climate science; an outright rejection of the most basic ideas in the economics of trade; and open contempt for the array of alliances and institutions of co-operation upon which the US-built global order rests…
作者直言，美國內(nèi)部顯然亟需改革。
但當(dāng)前發(fā)生的不是改革，而是對美國國內(nèi)外成功根基的破壞。這種損害難以逆轉(zhuǎn)。人們不可能忘記是誰、是什么造成了這一切。
It is clear that much reform is needed within the US. Yet what is happening now is not reform, but the ruin of the foundations of US success, at home and abroad. It will be hard to reverse the damage. It will be impossible for people to forget who and what caused it.
作者稱，一個試圖以腐敗的裙帶資本主義取代法治與憲政的美國，注定無法超越中國；純粹交易導(dǎo)向的美國，必將失去盟友真心支持。世界需要的是既能競爭又能合作的美國?？杀氖?，當(dāng)下的美國兩者皆失。
A US that is trying to replace the rule of law and the constitution with corrupt crony capitalism will not outperform China. A purely transactional US will not receive the wholehearted support of its allies. The world needs a US that competes and co-operates with China. This US, alas, will fail to do either well.
編輯：李金昳
來源：金融時報
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