2014 年莫迪執(zhí)政印度，并且將高鐵建設(shè)視為"印度制造"的旗艦工程。因為當(dāng)時中國

2017年，印度高鐵項目舉行奠基儀式，之后就停止了。最近好像又重啟了，印度網(wǎng)友問：印度網(wǎng)友問：印度可以在日本的無私的協(xié)助下建造自己的高鐵嗎？我們看看各國網(wǎng)友的看法。

Indeed.

確實。

At first, India planned to build the high-speed railway with the help of Japan's technology and funds. However, after a decade of折騰, only minimal progress has been made. Now the new plan is to build the high-speed railway on its own by introducing Japan's technology transfer. Even if you give a set of tools to a chimpanzee, it could do this (sarcastic about the slow progress of the plan and the stupid approach).

最初，印度計劃借助日本的技術(shù)和資金來建造高鐵。然而，經(jīng)過長達(dá)10年的折騰，卻只取得了微不足道的進(jìn)展。如今新計劃是通過引進(jìn)日本技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓，自行建造高鐵。這事兒，哪怕是給只黑猩猩一套工具，它都能做到（諷刺計劃進(jìn)展緩慢且方式愚蠢）。

But can we afford it?

可我們負(fù)擔(dān)得起嗎？

Definitely not!!!

絕對負(fù)擔(dān)不起?。?！

The Indian government and those stupid people in power have finally realized how high the actual investment and subsequent maintenance costs are to supply enough electricity to a railway line to enable it to reach a speed of over 250 kilometers per hour.

印度政府以及那些掌權(quán)的蠢貨終于意識到，要給一條鐵路通上足夠的電，使其能達(dá)到250公里以上的時速，所需的實際投資以及后續(xù)的維護(hù)成本有多高。

打開網(wǎng)易新聞 查看精彩圖片

Just the heat transfer mechanism costs $9,000 per kilometer per day. This means that for a 300-kilometer line, the daily cost is $270,000, and for a year, it's $100 million (about 8.7 billion Indian rupees).

僅僅是熱傳遞機(jī)制，每天每公里就要花費9000美元。這意味著，一條300公里的線路，每天的花費就是27萬美元，一年下來就是1億美元（約合87億印度盧比）。

Only when the mileage of the high-speed railway line reaches at least 12,000 kilometers can the cost of the heat transfer mechanism be reduced to less than $1,000 per kilometer per day.

只有當(dāng)高鐵線路里程達(dá)到至少1.2萬公里時，熱傳遞機(jī)制的成本才能降至每天每公里不到1000美元。

打開網(wǎng)易新聞 查看精彩圖片

China has a high-speed railway network of 45,000 kilometers and has made huge profits from freight transportation. However, even so, its high-speed railways still have an average annual loss of 8.7%.

中國擁有4.5萬公里的高鐵線路，并且從貨運中獲取了巨額利潤，但即便如此，其高鐵每年仍平均虧損8.7%。

Given India's serious corruption problem and low quality standards, our losses are likely to be much higher.

鑒于印度嚴(yán)重的腐敗問題以及較低的質(zhì)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，我們的虧損可能會高得多。

China is wealthy, while India is short of money.

中國財力雄厚，而印度卻囊中羞澀。

So the question is - how can we make up for the losses of the high-speed railway, especially in terms of maintenance?

所以問題來了——我們該如何彌補(bǔ)高鐵尤其是維護(hù)方面的虧損呢？

The worthless "Vande Bharat" train is the best example. On most routes, the average speed of this train is only 113 - 115 kilometers per hour, and it was completely unnecessary to build it. With a small portion of that money, other fast trains like the "Shatabdi" could have been renovated and the same toilets and other facilities could have been installed. The fact that only less than 7 kilometers of the line has achieved stable electrification is clear evidence.

毫無價值的“梵德巴拉特”列車就是最好的例子。在大多數(shù)線路上，該列車平均時速僅為113 - 115公里，完全沒有必要建造。用這筆資金的一小部分，本可以用于翻新像“薩塔布迪”這樣的其他快速列車，并安裝同樣的廁所和其他設(shè)備。目前僅有不到7公里的線路實現(xiàn)了穩(wěn)定電氣化，這就是明證。

India has invested billions of rupees just to satisfy the vanity of a bearded elder, allowing him to keep cutting the ribbon like a three-year-old child!

印度投入了數(shù)十億盧比，僅僅是為了滿足某位留著胡須的長者的虛榮心，讓他能像個三歲小孩一樣不停地剪彩！

As I have been saying since 2020, judging from all the data, building a high-speed railway is simply crazy. It would be better to spend that money on the full research and development of ramjet engines, scramjet engines, and active electronically scanned array radar systems, so that we don't have to grovel in front of the Americans and the Russians just for a little advanced technology.

正如我從2020年起就一直說的，從各項數(shù)據(jù)來看，建造高鐵簡直是瘋狂之舉。還不如把這筆錢花在沖壓噴氣發(fā)動機(jī)、超燃沖壓發(fā)動機(jī)以及有源電子掃描陣列雷達(dá)系統(tǒng)的充分研發(fā)上，這樣我們就不必僅僅為了一點先進(jìn)技術(shù)，就在美國人和俄羅斯人面前卑躬屈膝了。

Oh, that's right. India will surely be able to build a high-speed railway. Since Japan is providing technology and assistance, there's actually not much that really needs to be built independently. It's basically just a matter of copying and imitating. India just needs to solve its own possible logistics and operation problems. However, the key lies in aspects such as the ecosystem, economic factors, and political influence.

哦，沒錯。印度肯定能建成高鐵。既然有日本提供技術(shù)和援助，其實沒什么真正需要自主建設(shè)的，基本就是照搬照抄的事兒。印度只需解決自身可能存在的物流和運營問題就行。然而，問題的關(guān)鍵在于生態(tài)系統(tǒng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)因素以及政治影響等方面。

You see, in those developed countries or countries that already have high-speed railways, the high-speed railway is part of their ecosystem. But in India, the high-speed railway will seem out of place. Things that are mavericks are often extremely difficult to control. Let me give an inappropriate example: Imagine a beautiful woman wearing a miniskirt walking alone on an empty street in an area with poor public security at 11 p.m., such as in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, or Haryana. It's very likely that she won't be safe. She's highly likely to be molested, robbed of her belongings, or even killed.

你看，在那些發(fā)達(dá)國家或者已擁有高鐵的國家，高鐵是其生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的一部分。但在印度，高鐵卻會顯得格格不入。特立獨行的事物往往極難把控。我舉個不太恰當(dāng)?shù)睦樱合胂笠幌?，一位身著超短裙的美麗女子，晚?1點獨自走在某個治安不佳地區(qū)的空蕩蕩街道上，比如比哈爾邦、北方邦或者哈里亞納邦，很可能她就無法安然無恙了。她極有可能遭遇非禮、財物被搶，甚至被殺害。

People won't appreciate her beauty because she's not compatible with the local ecosystem, and the locals won't think about improving the ecosystem they're in. But if the same woman is in a lively and crowded place in Mumbai, with ten other women dressed similarly around her, she'll be safe there because she fits into that ecosystem.

人們不會欣賞她的美麗，因為她與當(dāng)?shù)厣鷳B(tài)系統(tǒng)不相容，而當(dāng)?shù)厝艘膊粫胫ジ纳谱陨硭幍纳鷳B(tài)環(huán)境。但同樣是這位女子，在孟買某個熱鬧擁擠的地方，周圍還有十位穿著類似的女子，她在那兒就會很安全，因為她融入了那個生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。

In an environment where most trains have a speed of only 50 - 80 kilometers per hour, it's impossible to be compatible with a high-speed railway. Think about the ecosystems of Japan, the UK, the US, and even China. The high-speed railway fits in well in these places. In those places, people don't spit on the train or in the station. Just like the woman mentioned before, in an incompatible environment, her goodness can't be preserved.

在一個大多數(shù)列車時速僅為50 - 80公里的環(huán)境里，是無法兼容高鐵的。想想日本、英國、美國，甚至中國的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，高鐵在這些地方都能很好地融入。在那些地方，人們不會在車廂內(nèi)或車站隨地吐痰。就像前面說的那位女子，在不匹配的環(huán)境中，她的美好就難以保全。

Next is the economic aspect. Can a single high-speed railway line recoup the investment in infrastructure construction and cover the operation and maintenance costs? Feasibility and viability (here it can be understood as commercial profitability) are two different things.

接下來是經(jīng)濟(jì)層面的問題。單條高鐵線路能否收回建設(shè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的投資，以及覆蓋運營和維護(hù)成本呢？可行性和 viability（此處可理解為商業(yè)上的可盈利性）是兩碼事。

This project may not be commercially profitable. A high-speed railway requires a completely different transportation system from the existing railway network, similar to the subway system. It can't run on India's existing railway network. So, expanding the high-speed railway network will involve huge costs, including large-scale infrastructure construction, land acquisition, capital investment, and so on.

這個項目可能在商業(yè)上并不具有可盈利性。高鐵需要一套完全不同于現(xiàn)有鐵路網(wǎng)絡(luò)的運輸系統(tǒng)，類似于地鐵系統(tǒng)。它無法在印度現(xiàn)有的鐵路網(wǎng)上運行。所以，拓展高鐵網(wǎng)絡(luò)將涉及巨額成本，包括大規(guī)模的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、土地征用、資金投入等等。

India can't even afford the funds needed to improve railway safety at present, and millions of people take the train every day. Therefore, the high-speed railway should not be our top priority. Even if such infrastructure is built, with India's poor per capita income level, how many people can afford to take the high-speed railway? Japan's per capita GDP in 2024 is expected to be between $32,859 and $43,005, which is almost 15 times that of India. It can be seen that from an economic perspective, this is not realistic.

印度目前連提升鐵路安全所需的資金都拿不出來，而每天卻有數(shù)百萬人乘坐火車出行。因此，高鐵不應(yīng)成為我們的優(yōu)先事項。即便建成了這樣的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，以印度可憐的人均收入水平，又有多少人能坐得起高鐵呢？2024年日本的人均國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值預(yù)計在32859美元至43005美元之間，幾乎是印度的15倍。由此可見，從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度看，這并不現(xiàn)實。

Last but not least, there are the political influence and significance. Building a high-speed railway is just a gimmick. It's not a real need for India, and it doesn't help the country or the economy. It may just satisfy the vanity of some people.

最后但同樣重要的是政治影響和意義。建設(shè)高鐵不過是個噱頭，它并非印度的實際需求，對國家和經(jīng)濟(jì)也沒有幫助，可能只是滿足了某些人的虛榮心。

Moreover, it may not necessarily play a role in electoral politics. 90% of people can't afford to take the high-speed railway, and they have no opportunity or need to take it either. Politicians are not sure about the results of doing this, so the progress is very slow. That money could have been spent on other places where the returns might be higher. However, don't lose heart. One day, the high-speed railway will become a reality in India. But as for whether it's economically feasible, I'm not sure.

而且，它在選舉政治中也未必能發(fā)揮作用。90%的人坐不起高鐵，也沒有機(jī)會和需求去乘坐。從政者對這樣做的結(jié)果心里沒底，所以推進(jìn)得很慢。那筆錢本可以花在其他回報可能更高的地方。不過，也別灰心?？傆幸惶?，高鐵會在印度成為現(xiàn)實。但至于經(jīng)濟(jì)上是否可行，我就不確定了。

Yes, of course, but based on the following preconditions:

是的，當(dāng)然，但基于以下前提條件：

Japan sincerely hopes to help India build a high-speed railway, even if it is a money-losing business. This means that Japan should not only consider economic benefits but also take into account its geopolitical interests. Just as what China has done for Indonesia, this is also the reason why Indonesia has its first high-speed railway.

日本真心希望幫助印度建設(shè)高鐵，即便這是一項虧本生意。這意味著，日本不應(yīng)僅僅考量經(jīng)濟(jì)收益，還需考慮其地緣政治利益。就如同中國為印度尼西亞所做的那樣，這也是印度尼西亞得以擁有首條高鐵的原因。

India should abandon the idea of enjoying a free lunch without paying any price. You get what you pay for, which is the basic business logic.

印度應(yīng)摒棄不付出任何代價就能享受免費午餐的想法。一分錢一分貨，這是基本的商業(yè)邏輯。

India should solve many problems, such as breaking down the barriers between the states and negotiating with landowners to ensure that they do not ask for an exorbitant price.

印度應(yīng)解決諸多問題，比如打破各邦之間的界限，與土地所有者進(jìn)行協(xié)商，確保他們不會漫天要價。

Even if India can solve complex issues such as land acquisition and financing, it still faces many challenges.

即便印度能夠解決土地征收和融資等復(fù)雜問題，它仍面臨諸多挑戰(zhàn)。

For example, the transportation of heavy machinery is a fundamental issue, and this is also my area of expertise. Most of the roads in India are not suitable for transporting large equipment, and the traffic situation is extremely complex, requiring coordination, communication, and cooperation among many departments. Given India's current work efficiency, it may take months or even years for heavy equipment to reach a construction site.

例如，重型機(jī)械運輸便是一個基礎(chǔ)性問題，這也是我所擅長的領(lǐng)域。印度大多數(shù)道路并不適合運輸大型設(shè)備，而且交通狀況極為復(fù)雜，需要眾多部門之間進(jìn)行協(xié)調(diào)、溝通與合作。以印度目前的工作效率，重型設(shè)備抵達(dá)建筑工地可能需要數(shù)月甚至數(shù)年時間。

In addition, despite India's large population, it is still very difficult to find enough skilled workers.

此外，盡管印度人口眾多，但要找到足夠的技術(shù)工人仍然困難重重。

There are still many other problems to be solved. To be honest, I am pessimistic about the cooperation between India and Japan. Because both sides have their own selfish motives and are calculating their own interests. They have no spirit of cooperation and do not know how to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.

還有許多其他問題也有待解決。說實話，我對印度和日本之間的合作持悲觀態(tài)度。因為雙方都各有私心，打著自己的小算盤，毫無合作精神，也不懂得如何實現(xiàn)互利共贏。