此前因直言退出具身智能而引發(fā)爭(zhēng)議的金沙江創(chuàng)投主管合伙人朱嘯虎現(xiàn)身中關(guān)村論壇，分享了對(duì)中國(guó)AI（人工智能）應(yīng)用發(fā)展與投資前景的展望。
3月31日，朱嘯虎在北京中關(guān)村論壇年會(huì)的主題演講中表示，中國(guó)在AI應(yīng)用端有巨大機(jī)會(huì)，但要注意所有AI應(yīng)用的壁壘都在AI之外，建議相關(guān)企業(yè)要重視商業(yè)化并全力出海。
回顧中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和創(chuàng)投企業(yè)過(guò)去20年的歷史，朱嘯虎表示，其實(shí)過(guò)去20年中出現(xiàn)過(guò)很多互聯(lián)網(wǎng)風(fēng)口，例如門戶網(wǎng)站、長(zhǎng)視頻等等，其中許多商業(yè)模式現(xiàn)在被證明是成立的，但在當(dāng)年都經(jīng)歷過(guò)泡沫期，然后被嘲笑、回落到“死亡谷”，再重新發(fā)展起來(lái)，最終獲得成功。
朱嘯虎表示，由此推斷，2019年興起的元宇宙、2021年的SaaS軟件（軟件即服務(wù)，一種軟件交付模式）以及過(guò)去兩年的大模型，這些風(fēng)口剛開(kāi)始時(shí)的熱度都非常高，但前兩者已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷了證偽和被冷落。不過(guò)，也許在“死亡谷”中又孕育著希望。以元宇宙為例，蘋果的MR（融合現(xiàn)實(shí)）頭顯Vision Pro雖然很酷，但商業(yè)化做得非常不好，而Meta在這方面就做得很好，重點(diǎn)是聚焦在一些簡(jiǎn)單的功能上。
而隨著DeepSeek在今年1月推出R1模型，許多軟件企業(yè)積極擁抱DeepSeek，讓朱嘯虎看到了軟件企業(yè)春天來(lái)臨的可能性：“大模型也是一樣的，大模型在過(guò)去兩年非?；?，但今年DeepSeek出來(lái)以后，明顯市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始看淡。但是，我們可以看到很多做AI應(yīng)用的企業(yè)，開(kāi)始爆發(fā)式增長(zhǎng)，增長(zhǎng)速度幾乎和當(dāng)年的團(tuán)購(gòu)企業(yè)一樣，這是非常驚人的?！?/p>
最近6個(gè)月，朱嘯虎觀察到，中美有不少AI應(yīng)用公司的收入開(kāi)始快速增長(zhǎng)，“每周環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)10%以上，月環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)20%以上”，這讓他感到十分興奮。
因此，朱嘯虎指出，AI應(yīng)用收入開(kāi)始爆發(fā)增長(zhǎng)，迎來(lái)了“iPhone3時(shí)刻”，這種增長(zhǎng)的源頭是對(duì)用戶需求的掌握：“對(duì)很多創(chuàng)業(yè)者來(lái)說(shuō)，技術(shù)路線并不重要，重要的是商業(yè)場(chǎng)景，重要的是產(chǎn)品。你懂不懂客戶的需求在哪里？能不能開(kāi)發(fā)出他們需要的產(chǎn)品，能不能試用一下就付費(fèi)，才能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)今天這么快的增長(zhǎng)速度?！?http://beijing.jkillx.com/k3y/detail/e9u
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朱嘯虎還犀利地指出，所有的AI應(yīng)用都是套殼應(yīng)用，關(guān)鍵是如何建立長(zhǎng)期壁壘，所有AI應(yīng)用的長(zhǎng)期壁壘都在技術(shù)之外：“AI應(yīng)用就是沒(méi)有（技術(shù)）壁壘，說(shuō)有壁壘是忽悠人的，要在非AI能力上建立壁壘。”他解釋道，這些非AI能力就來(lái)自必須人工交付的苦活累活，“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)大廠不愿意干的活”。
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