chatgpt 4o image gen is as big as the chatgpt launch. probably will birth 1000+ $1-$100m/year vertical software businesses.
2.當(dāng)前的 AI 生成內(nèi)容，就像數(shù)字音樂早期的「MP3-Napster」時代。數(shù)百萬創(chuàng)作者并沒有意識到，他們的作品未來將成為打敗他們的武器。
we’re in the “mp3 napster era” of content. millions of creators don’t realize their entire back catalog is being weaponized into their competition because of AI.
every calendar, inbox, and CRM will be rebuilt from scratch in the next 3 years. not “AI-enhanced,” fully rethought.
4. AI 不是來當(dāng)員工，而是來當(dāng)老板的！首批具備管理人類能力的 AI 系統(tǒng)將徹底重構(gòu)勞動力市場，其影響力將遠超工業(yè)革命。
i thought ai was creating digital employees. but it's more like digital employers. the first ai systems that can manage human workers will cause a restructuring of labor markets more significant than the industrial revolution.
if your job is interviewing people who will train ai systems that will replace people who do interviews, you're just a step in a weird recursive extinction.
6.AI 將難以規(guī)?；姆?wù)生意，轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榧婢弋a(chǎn)品利潤和服務(wù)溢價的新生意。能用 AI 做 80% 工作的產(chǎn)品化解決方案，將成為新的獨角獸企業(yè)。
ai is turning "service businesses that don't scale" into "product businesses with service margins." the new unicorns will be productized services with ai doing 80% of the work.
building communities is harder than building products but everyone pretends it's the reverse. the reality is most startups fail because nobody cares.
8.威爾·史密斯吃意面？那是 739 天前的 AI 水平。想象一下再過 739 天，生成式 AI 會進化到什么程度？
it's been 739 days since the will smith spaghetti video. imagine what could happen to gen ai in 739 more days?
APPSO 的延展思考：在圖像/視頻的生成式 AI 方向，上一次重大破圈事件是3 月的「OpenAI 吉卜力風(fēng)格遷移生成」，而兩年前的威爾·史密斯吃意面是上上次。 這兩次事件有異同之處：相同的是都和知名文化現(xiàn)象/符號有關(guān)，從而很容易地導(dǎo)致了破圈；不同則在于最初版本的吃意面視頻過于粗糙，十分「魔性」。這種失真感不但沒有影響人們對 AI 強大的預(yù)期，反而顯著加強了這個梗的病毒傳播。
9.開發(fā) AI 助理的人，大多沒用過真人助理。真正的助理懂背景、記歷史、重關(guān)系——而 95% 的聊天機器人，三者皆無。
people building "ai assistants" have never actually had assistants. real assistants need context, history, and relationship. 95% of chatbots have none of those.
APPSO 的延展思考：不需要用過助理，大多數(shù)用戶已經(jīng)覺得 AI 助理很蠢了。有給它交代上下文、打磨提示的工夫，還不如自己去干了。
10.3年內(nèi)，連最高級的客訴處理都將被 AI 取代，包括你現(xiàn)在認(rèn)為必須人工的復(fù)雜客訴。
most customer support will be automated within 36 months. not just tier 1 tickets, complex, multi-step resolution that previously required senior support staff.
the worst thing that can happen to your startup is mediocre success. enough to keep you going but not enough to change your life. most founders are trapped there. thinking about this a lot with respect to shutting down or doubling down on projects.
the ai backlash won't just come from replaced workers, it'll be from everyone who realizes their entire digital identity is being converted into training data without consent.
the "sketching economy" is the real ai revolution. when anyone can turn rough sketches into production-ready designs, taste and ideation become the only scarce resources.
i dont know how else to say it, the money (and opportunity for the avg joe) is in ai startups is in vertical-specific applications that actually understand industry context. no, adding industry terms to your prompts isn't the same thing.
16.消費移動設(shè)備又復(fù)興了。從桌面→移動→AI 優(yōu)先，我們已進入 AI 原生時代——下一批獨角獸，必是深度整合 AI 的移動應(yīng)用。
consumer mobile is back in full swing. we went from desktop-first apps to mobile-first apps to now ai-first mobile apps. the next wave of $100m/year apps will start mobile-first with ai baked in from day one.
17. AI 「套殼」大戰(zhàn)才剛打響。介于底層大模型和終端行業(yè)之間的中間商，將收割最大紅利。而模型和行業(yè)應(yīng)用本身終將淪為廉價商品。
the ai middleman boom is just starting. companies that sit between foundation models and specific industries will capture most of the value while both ends get commoditized.
18.我們正在目睹新工種的誕生：AI 流程設(shè)計師將成為新一代金領(lǐng)，專精于把人類流程轉(zhuǎn)化為 AI 增強的工作流。
we're witnessing the birth of a whole new job category: ai workflow designers. people who can map human processes into ai-augmented workflows will be the highest-paid consultants of the next decade.
ai is creating winner-take-most markets overnight. the window to establish yourself as the go-to solution in a specific vertical is maybe 6-12 months before it closes for a decade. this isn't helping my sleep lollll.
20.創(chuàng)業(yè)金點子：用AI重塑傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)產(chǎn)品——這就是你的殺手锏。找一個已被驗證的非 AI 產(chǎn)品，用 AI 思維徹底重構(gòu)，再找行業(yè) KOL 引爆賣點。這把穩(wěn)贏。
really smart strategy to rebuild traditional products with ai as your unfair advantage, hiding the complexity behind familiar interfaces. basically, just look at proven apps that have no ai, make them ai-first (if it adds a ton of value to end customer). use ai features (don’t sell ai) in creator-led marketing. this is the playbook.
nobody's talking about how ai is making previously "un-acquirable" businesses suddenly attractive targets. when you can automate operations, the owner-dependent business problem disappears.
24.續(xù)上條：即將到來的中小企業(yè)收購潮，會比 2021 年的科技泡沫更夸張。當(dāng) AI 把運營成本砍掉了 60%，小企業(yè)會成為現(xiàn)金流機器。
the coming smb acquisition frenzy will make the 2021 tech bubble look tame. when ai drops operating costs by 60%, every small business becomes a cash flow engine.
25.如果「氛圍編程」（AI 寫代碼）是一個千億美元的機會的話，那么「氛圍營銷」的市場會有多大？。
if vibe coding will be a $100B opportunity, how big of an opportunity is vibe marketing? (you can follow my co-founder @boringmarketer for more on that)
APPSO 的延展思考：上面這幾條和中小企業(yè)、創(chuàng)業(yè)方向有關(guān)的思考都非常值得參考。當(dāng)然不是說直接跟著他走，而是如果你的企業(yè)正好符合他的描述，你應(yīng)該考慮更積極地?fù)肀?AI，探索 AI 工具和自動化能否為你提高效率，甚至讓你可以對行業(yè)里的既得利益者和巨頭們發(fā)起挑戰(zhàn)。 當(dāng)然，不要因為過度使用 AI 而讓你的核心員工和老員工們對你失望。如果你因為 AI 逆天改命，也應(yīng)該讓他們從中分得一杯羹。
26.游戲工作室將會兩極分化：一邊是 AI 智能體驅(qū)動的「內(nèi)容農(nóng)場永動機」，可以批量生成無限的素材；另一邊是專注核心玩法的「精品工作室」。無法轉(zhuǎn)型的中間層將被淘汰。
Video game studios will separate into two distinct types: agent-driven content farms that generate infinite assets, and boutique studios focused on core mechanics. The middle will disappear entirely.
APPSO 的延展思考：看看過去幾年最受歡迎的游戲和背后的工作室就知道了。前者是你在短視頻里經(jīng)常見到的那種，素材千變?nèi)f化但機制萬變不離其宗的放置、射擊，以及羊了個羊等消消樂類，殺時間的游戲。它們不招你待見，但市場巨大。后者是小島的《死亡擱淺》、戰(zhàn)馬的《天國：拯救》、霧影的《二人成行》等發(fā)布即封神的大作，也是《Only Up!》、《Getting Over it with Bennett Foddy》、《Get To Work》這樣的機制魔性、折磨到讓人砸手柄的獨立游戲。
打開網(wǎng)易新聞 查看精彩圖片
27.企業(yè)可能更愿意花每月幾十美元訂閱 AI 工具無限生成素材，而不是 2000 美元/天雇一個商業(yè)攝影師。商業(yè)攝影賽道涼涼。
Corporate photography is effectively dead. No company will pay $2K for a stock-style photoshoot when they can generate unlimited perfectly on-brand imagery for the cost of a subscription.
enterprise sales is being completely inverted by ai. using ai to identify exactly when and how to talk to the right buyer, and set off automations. ill probably talk about this more on a pod soon.
i wonder if AGI will emerge from interconnected agent networks that develop emergent properties nobody designed? we're building the neural connections without realizing it.
30.雖然生成式 AI 看似將成就萬億級市場，真正的「隱形金礦」其實在預(yù)測式 AI 領(lǐng)域。預(yù)知未來的價值，永遠高于創(chuàng)造內(nèi)容。
while genai looks to be the $1T category, many quiet fortunes will be built in predictive ai. knowing what will happen is more valuable than generating new content.
APPSO 的延展思考：目前的生成式 AI，生成的是它自己認(rèn)為將會發(fā)生的東西?；诖笳Z言模型的 AI 會遵循文本的規(guī)則和概率的規(guī)則。而預(yù)測式 AI（比如天氣、地質(zhì)、金融、社會工程學(xué)的垂類 AI）需要遵循現(xiàn)實規(guī)則。后者是不是大語言模型，也說不定，可能是基于，或者從大語言模型精修特調(diào)的的專家模型。 當(dāng)然，如果大語言模型發(fā)展太快、太普及，甚至成為實際的權(quán)威和統(tǒng)治者——那么將會發(fā)生什么，也是大語言模型說了算……
31.所謂的「AI 泡沫」，不過是 VC 們因為分不清 API wrapper 和真·創(chuàng)新而交的學(xué)費。
the "ai bubble" is actually an excise tax on vcs who can't tell the difference between genuine innovation and repackaged openai apis.
interfaces will become personalities. when every tool can talk back, vibe and tone will drive trust, loyalty, and retention. It's why I'm investing more in our design firm for the AI age @meetLCA (you can follow for more insights on designing/taste/brand that will stand out)
33.AI 將殺死傳統(tǒng)首頁。未來的入口界面會因人而異、因需而變、因時而動。
ai will kill the homepage. interfaces will get replaced by entry points that change based on who you are, what you need, and when you show up.
34.用戶不為「AI」買單，只為結(jié)果付費。
no one will pay for "ai", they’ll pay to solve a $10,000/hour problem in 3 clicks. sell outcomes, hide the ai.
35.Google 的萬億帝國可能被 AI 拆解：旅游搜索、商品比價、本地服務(wù)等等，每個細分領(lǐng)域都是待掘的金礦。
ai is unbundling google. every vertical search engine, directory, and comparison tool is a billion-dollar opportunity in disguise.
36.未來的小企業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)配置：1個創(chuàng)始人+5個 AI 員工組成的「影子團隊」，自動搞定財務(wù)、銷售、營銷全流程。
every small business will get a “ghost team.” automated bookkeepers, sales agents, marketers—run by one founder and 5 bots.
37. AI 生成內(nèi)容導(dǎo)致了文化的同質(zhì)化危機，當(dāng)全球共享同一套模型，我們得到的將是無限重復(fù)的「數(shù)字回聲」。具有原創(chuàng)性人類思考將會成為最終級的附加值。怪異會成為賣點，請保持怪異。
ai-generated content is creating a monoculture of ideas. when everyone uses the same models, we get the same outputs. original human thinking is becoming the ultimate premium. be weird. weird will sell.
APPSO 的延展思考：不只人過度依賴 AI，就連 AI 自己也在不斷加強對自己的依賴。 機器學(xué)習(xí)的經(jīng)驗指出，過度依賴生成的數(shù)據(jù)再次訓(xùn)練，有可能會發(fā)生「過擬合」現(xiàn)象 (overfitting)，甚至導(dǎo)致模型工作機制熵增，使得生成的結(jié)果變得更加不可靠，違背常理，失去代表性。 這可以類比為生物學(xué)上的近親繁殖，對同族遺傳資源（基因/數(shù)據(jù)）的過度利用，更有可能導(dǎo)致錯誤的因素在生成結(jié)果中純合。只是這種 AI 的「近親繁殖」結(jié)果不像生物學(xué)那么容易一眼看出來。事實上大部分人不具備分辨能力，而這會導(dǎo)致 AI 生成的錯誤結(jié)果被更多采納和再利用，最終形成一種脫離現(xiàn)實的邏輯閉環(huán)。
38.AI 不會顛覆學(xué)校，而是實現(xiàn)教育的「去中介化」。未來的神童們將繞過傳統(tǒng)教育體系，通過直接獲取受眾、實踐驗證的方式來快速成長。今天的孩子都當(dāng) KOL，而創(chuàng)業(yè)者才會是 Z 世代孩子的理想職業(yè)。
schools won’t be disrupted by ai. they’ll be disintermediated. smart teens will skip formal education, build audiences, run experiments, and learn faster. kids say they want to become creators but creators are becoming entrepreneurs. entrepreneurship becomes the most popular profession.
39.AI 創(chuàng)業(yè)泡沫的結(jié)果：18 個月后，八成的 AI 創(chuàng)業(yè)公司將會像劣質(zhì)小廣告一樣無人搭理，而剩下的兩成會晉升為數(shù)字基建。
in 18 months, 80% of the “ai startup” category will look like spam. the rest will become infrastructure.
40.A/B 測試沒意義了。當(dāng) AI 能在一夜之間完成200次迭代實驗，何必再爭論一個按鈕該用什么顏色？
conversion rate product debates are obsolete. Why argue over 2 button colors when AI focus groups can test 200 variations overnight?
41.傳統(tǒng)營銷即將被 AI 接管，營銷專員必須向上游遷移。講述品牌故事、營造獨特氛圍、傳遞品牌能量——才是未來營銷人的核心競爭力。
most of what we call “marketing” is about to be done by ai. humans will move upstream into storytelling, vibes, and brand energy.
42.今年最明智的招聘策略？聘請一位 AI 運營總監(jiān)，一個能搭建 AI 工作流、整合工具鏈，并交付實際成果的人才。
the best hiring decision you can make this year? a head of ai ops. someone who can build workflows, glue tools, and ship outcomes.
43. 第一頭估值十億的 AGI 獨角獸，初看必定像個玩具。所有改變世界的東西都是這樣。
the first $1b AGI startup will look like a toy at first. all world-changing interfaces do.
people still hate monthly subscriptions. outcome-based pricing is still in early days. implementing this will be a competitive advantage for lots of companies. large saas wont be able to compete with you.
i don't know how long this window stays open, but we're in a moment where all the rules of building businesses are being rewritten. for the people playing with these new tools, creating audiences and communities, you've got an unfair advantage.
打開網(wǎng)易新聞 查看精彩圖片
熱門跟貼