最近這幾天，上海按摩店一片欣欣向榮，原因是擠滿了“跑斷腿”的媒體老師。
4月23日，上海車展開幕，雷科技旗下電車通派出專業(yè)報道團，遠赴千里之外的上海，近距離觀察這場汽車與科技的盛宴。作為今年國內(nèi)第一個A級車展，也是亞洲規(guī)模最大的車展，開展當天，硝煙彌漫，發(fā)布會接踵而至，電車通團隊人均10個活動邀請，不是在參加發(fā)布會，就是在去發(fā)布會的路上。
不過，并不是所有車企品牌都能對這氛圍感同身受。在熱鬧背后，有14家以上車企品牌消失在視野中。據(jù)了解，本屆上海車展包括蘭博基尼、瑪莎拉蒂、勞斯萊斯、北京現(xiàn)代、悅達起亞、捷尼賽思、極星、雪佛蘭、斯巴魯、斯柯達、哪吒汽車、捷達、東風雪鐵龍/標致、捷豹路虎等車企缺席。
從名單來看，可以簡單分類為韓系車、法系車及傳統(tǒng)豪華品牌。變革浪潮向前，從上海車展的展位變遷，或可以窺見汽車市場的變局。
韓系、法系車集體退場
先說說韓系車，這是韓系品牌自2002年進入中國市場以來，第一次從A級車展的參展名單中消失。
曾幾何時，韓系車在中國市場不乏高光時刻。北京現(xiàn)代曾憑借高性價比、節(jié)油等優(yōu)勢獲得一定的市場份額。
2023上海車展，北京現(xiàn)代展臺
（圖源：北京現(xiàn)代官方）
不過，隨著新能源汽車崛起，以燃油車為主打的北京現(xiàn)代在中國市場承壓。2017年，北京現(xiàn)代在華銷量同比下降超三成，跌破80萬輛；此后至2022年，北京現(xiàn)代錄得銷量六連跌。如今、現(xiàn)代和起亞的全年銷量甚至還不如比亞迪幾周的業(yè)績。
關于原因也已經(jīng)有過很多分析：品牌定位的固化、技術雙標、電動化轉(zhuǎn)型的滯后，地緣事件的長尾效應等等，然而更重要的是，當大眾、豐田、這些大廠都開始積極用徹頭徹尾的中國化電動新車，明確表明自己立場的時候，人們對韓系品牌的印象還停留在當年起亞中國首席運營官楊洪海的“等中國車企燒死了再搶市場”言論，以及北京現(xiàn)代不斷出售旗下工廠的行為上。
法系車也是同樣的原因，市場銷量持續(xù)低迷，存在感驟降；新能源轉(zhuǎn)型滯后，錯失技術賽道；產(chǎn)品策略與中國市場需求脫節(jié)，可以說是“摸著韓系車過河”了，可惜這條河通往何處尚且未知。
2023上海車展，雪鐵龍展臺
（圖源：雪鐵龍官方）
總的來說，韓法車系的退場，既非偶然的戰(zhàn)術失誤，也非簡單的“成本考量”，而是一場由技術路線、產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈掌控力和用戶認知差共同驅(qū)動的必然。
正如20多年前它們在中國市場快意馳騁的成功秘訣一樣，今天它們的撤退，無非是重走了當年那些敗退者所碾下的車轍而已。
當然，如果就此認為韓法系車在中國市場是執(zhí)迷不悟，冥頑不靈，也有失偏頗。
與大眾、豐田等車企積極參與到中國市場競爭中的策略有所不同，市占率已經(jīng)降至微不足道的韓系車，其實已經(jīng)沒有必要選擇孤注一擲式的冒險式轉(zhuǎn)型，而是奉行先活著，再圖發(fā)展的策略。
韓系車能在全球成功證明其并非“技術弱者”，但把有限的金錢花在刀刃上，讓自己相對健康的留在這個市場，以時間換發(fā)展空間，未來才有可能。從這個角度上講，韓系車的缺席還真不一定只是銷量原因，當參不參加上海車展已經(jīng)不再重要，退出車展也不失為一個理性的選擇。
超豪華品牌缺席，銷量下滑并不是根本原因
除了韓系車與法系車外，以往車展的銷量擔當——傳統(tǒng)超豪華品牌轉(zhuǎn)向低調(diào)，與上一屆上海車展對比，蘭博基尼、瑪莎拉蒂、勞斯萊斯等超豪華品牌均缺席此次車展，只剩賓利“獨守空房”。
原因是什么？在小紅書、百度、DeepSeek等渠道搜索，得出大部分的答案是“銷量下滑”。
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